22 August 2024
Gold prices have reached record highs in August 2024, surpassing $2,500, yet UBS analysts believe the market is not overvalued. They cite favorable macroeconomic factors, including dovish Fed expectations, lower real rates, and a weaker US dollar, as driving forces behind gold’s ascent. Despite the price surge, market positioning indicators suggest room for further growth, with net long positions on Comex below historical highs and sustained inflows into gold ETFs. UBS also notes the reestablishment of gold’s negative correlation with US real interest rates and its dual role as both a safe haven and a correlated asset with risk markets, supporting their positive outlook for gold’s continued strength.