Experts' Inflation Consensus Shifts, Altering Election Dynamics

27 August 2024

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s recent speech at Jackson Hole signaled that inflation is on track to reach the Fed’s 2% target, likely leading to interest rate cuts in September. This development, coupled with shifting public opinion, suggests that inflation is fading as both an economic and political issue. Recent surveys show Vice President Kamala Harris gaining ground against Donald Trump on economic matters, with some polls even favoring her. The diminishing political impact of inflation may be attributed to a growing expert consensus that pandemic-related factors, rather than government policies, were the primary cause of inflation. This shift in perception could potentially benefit Democrats in the upcoming election.

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