U.S. Recession Risk Drops to 20%, Goldman Sachs Reports

Goldman Sachs has reduced its forecast for a U.S. recession in the next 12 months from 25% to 20%, citing recent positive economic data. This revision comes after strong retail sales figures and a decrease in jobless claims, which have alleviated concerns sparked by July’s high unemployment rate. The bank’s chief U.S. economist, Jan Hatzius, noted that continued economic expansion could align the U.S. more closely with other G10 economies. Goldman Sachs maintains its prediction of a 25 basis point interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, with the possibility of a larger cut if the upcoming August jobs report disappoints.