Goldman Sachs: Rising Unemployment Not a Recession Signal

Goldman Sachs argues that the recent rise in U.S. unemployment is not signaling an imminent recession, despite historical indicators suggesting otherwise.

They cite three reasons: the layoff rate remains low, an increase in labor supply is driving the unemployment rate rather than job losses, and the Federal Reserve has ample room to cut interest rates if needed.

These factors suggest that the economy is not experiencing the usual negative feedback loop of job losses leading to reduced spending and further job losses.