8 July 2024
Citi Research analysts predict an aggressive series of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, starting in September 2024 and continuing through July 2025. They anticipate eight consecutive 25 basis point cuts, totaling a 200 basis point reduction, which would lower the benchmark rate from 5.25%-5.5% to 3.25%-3.5%. This forecast is based on recent economic indicators suggesting a slowdown, including a reversal in the service sector gauge and rising unemployment. Citi cites dovish comments from Fed Chair Powell and various signs of economic weakness, particularly in the job market, as supporting their prediction. They also warn of the potential for a sharper economic downturn and the possibility of triggering the “Sahm Rule” recession indicator if unemployment continues to rise at its current pace.