Falling Retail Sales Drive Treasury Yields Down, September Rate Cut Likely

Treasury yields fell following weaker-than-expected US retail sales data, increasing expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts this year. The two-year note’s yield dropped by up to 6 basis points to 4.70%. Market odds of a rate cut by September rose to 68%, with a full cut anticipated by November. The weak retail sales and revised April figures indicate consumer fatigue, supporting recent Treasury rallies. Goldman Sachs’ Lindsay Rosner noted that consumer spending may be slowing, suggesting potential rate cuts in September.