Bond Market's Recession Alarm Continues, Stock Market Impact Uncertain

A bond-market indicator signaling a recession has been flashing since 2022, the longest on record, but it doesn’t always predict immediate stock market trouble. Verdad Advisers analysts suggest this time might be different. Typically, equity investors react negatively when an inverted yield curve steepens, as it often signals a Fed response to economic downturns. However, the Fed’s planned rate cuts aim to achieve a soft landing amidst ongoing economic growth, potentially leading to a prolonged inverted yield curve without immediate adverse effects.