Global Recession Odds are 50/50 Citigroup Warns

Citigroup analysts have recently indicated that the likelihood of a global recession is now almost 50%, exacerbated by rapid interest rate hikes by central banks aimed at combating inflation. This inflation spike has been attributed to the aftermath of the Ukraine conflict and the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. The analysts warn that the path to disinflation could significantly hinder growth, reflecting a grim outlook for global economic expansion over the next year and a half. Similarly, Barclays has highlighted the fragility of the global economy, projecting a slowdown to just 1% growth for developed economies in 2023, with the euro area expected to slip into recession by the end of the fiscal year.