Rising Tide of Global Debt Set to Elevate Yields, Predicts Goldman Sachs

18 January 2024

Goldman Sachs Group forecasts a notable increase in global debt yields, driven by escalated government borrowing and central bank actions to downsize their balance sheets. In a recent report, the financial giant’s analysis of major developed bond markets, excluding Japan, indicates a direct correlation between public debt and yield rates. For every one percentage point rise in the public debt-to-GDP ratio, medium-term yields are expected to jump by a minimum of two basis points throughout this decade. This prediction notably omits government bonds currently held by central banks, suggesting a broader impact on global financial markets due to these fiscal maneuvers.

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