5 January 2024
Despite recent fluctuations in yields driven by employment and service-industry data, Treasury traders are firmly betting on the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates significantly in 2024. Swap contracts linked to Fed meetings are pricing in nearly six quarter-point reductions, with over a 70% chance of a cut in March. Initially, these bets were scaled back after a strong job report, but they regained momentum due to a comprehensive analysis of the payrolls report, a major revision in November’s data, and a weaker U.S. service sector performance.