29 December 2023
Historical data from the World Gold Council indicates that gold typically fares well in January, with an average return of 1.79% since 1971 and positive gains in nearly 60% of Januaries since then. This trend strengthens in the 21st century, with gold rising in 70% of Januaries since 2000. Key factors contributing to this include yearly portfolio rebalancing, a seasonal dip in real yields, and increased demand for gold in East Asia prior to the Lunar New Year. However, the Council cautions that this trend is not absolute, noting years like 2021 and 2022 when gold didn’t rise in January, often correlating with a strengthening US dollar. As 2024 approaches, the pause in Federal Reserve rate hikes and potential cuts could weaken the dollar, potentially setting up gold for another strong January performance.