26 December 2023
Fitch Ratings anticipates a surge in home prices following a predicted Federal Reserve interest rate cut in 2024. Despite the central bank’s expected reduction of 75 basis points, the housing market, with 88% of metro areas overvalued, might offer limited relief. Home prices are projected to increase by 0%-3% in 2024 and by an additional 2%-4% in 2025. This rise could further strain affordability, especially for first-time and entry-level buyers, thereby potentially dampening demand. The overvaluation of homes has also intensified, with a 9.4% overvaluation in the second quarter of this year, up from 7.8% at the end of 2022. However, this view isn’t universal; for example, Realtor.com predicts a decrease in home prices by 1.7% in 2024, citing lower mortgage rates and decreased buyer urgency.