Coming Soon – Why a US Recession Is Still Likely

2 October 2023

Economic indicators suggest the US might be headed for a downturn despite recent optimism. While the summer saw a boost in consumer confidence, looming challenges like an auto strike, the resumption of student loan payments, potential government shutdowns, and increased oil prices could severely affect GDP growth. Bloomberg Economics sees a recession as probable, with factors like dwindling pandemic savings, rising interest rates, and a tightening credit market amplifying concerns. Despite some positive signs, historical patterns and emerging economic pressures signal that complacency may be misplaced, and a downturn is closer than many anticipate.

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