21 September 2023
September’s Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey from the Philly Fed indicated a decline, moving back into contraction. The headline index fell sharply from +12 to -13.5, with significant decreases in new orders and shipments. Despite low jobless claims, the employment index contracted for the sixth consecutive month. Firms reported price increases, with 22% expecting the impacts of COVID-19 measures to intensify. Signs suggest building stagflationary pressures with slowing growth and rising prices.