14 September 2023
In March 2023, I highlighted the link between high inflation and subsequent unemployment. Historical data suggests a two-year lag between inflation peaks and unemployment surges. With a 9.1% inflation peak in June 2022, we might expect rising unemployment by June 2024. The recent 3.7% CPI increase warns of more employment challenges around 2025. Worryingly, the Federal Reserve’s 2% inflation target, diverging from a 1978 Congressional mandate of zero, exacerbates the issue, pointing to a bleak job market future.