24 August 2023
US jobless claims dropped to 230k last week, but the figures are skewed. Goldman points out two significant distortions inflating these numbers: potential fraudulent filings in Ohio and expanded unemployment eligibility in Minnesota. These distortions contributed to 28k of the initial claims. When these are factored out, initial claims levels closely resemble those from January, indicating the situation might not be as positive as it seems on the surface.