18 August 2023
Economic experts weigh in on looming economic risks:
– **Chetan Ahya, Morgan Stanley**: Fears a US recession and a substantial deceleration in China’s growth rate, especially if both occur simultaneously.
– **Mohammed Al-Jadaan, Saudi Arabia’s finance minister**: Sees fragmentation and increasing trade restrictions as the top threats, disrupting supply chains and spiking costs.
– **Olivier Blanchard, Former IMF chief economist**: Believes that although the battle against inflation might cause temporary recessions, geopolitical tensions, like subsidy and tariff wars, pose a more lingering concern.
– **Ethan Harris, Former Bank of America Corp. economist**: Highlights the risk of major geopolitical shocks, including potential US-China economic decoupling and persistent high inflation.
– **Alicia Garcia Herrero, Natixis SA**: Pinpoints the uncoordinated industrial policies between major nations that jeopardize emerging and developing countries’ growth aspirations.
– **Zhang Jun, Fudan University**: Warns against the disintegration of integrated economies and supply chains, foreseeing sustained inflation and stunted global growth.
– **Jonathan Kearns, Challenger Ltd.**: Envisions a scenario of high inflation, interest rates, and weak growth potentially leading to bank failures and unforeseen interest-rate risks.
– **Jin Seoungho, Korea Investment Corp.**: Stresses the detrimental effects of a US-China economic Cold War, considering China’s massive economic weight.
– **Sayuri Shirai, Keio University**: Expresses concerns over persistent inflation in advanced economies, which could force central banks to unexpectedly hike interest rates.