11 August 2023
Market expectations for rate hikes for the remainder of the year barely shifted post the CPI release. Before the inflation data, there was a 14% probability of a quarter point increase by the Fed in September. This expectation slightly dipped to 11% after the release. The November and December expectations experienced minor alterations of only about 1 to 2%. Essentially, the CPI data seemed to have minimal influence on market forecasts regarding Fed rate adjustments.