Former Treasury Secretary Summers Highlights Inflation Concerns, Anticipates Further Bond Declines

10 July 2023

Former Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers cautioned policymakers not to become complacent about inflation, emphasizing that the decrease in inflation rates should not be mistaken for long-term stability. He anticipates a further decline in bond prices as investors adjust to the need for more monetary tightening. Summers made these remarks following the release of a robust US jobs report, which showed strong payroll growth and increased wages. While certain economic indicators suggest potential softening, the bond market has reacted with sell-offs in anticipation of future interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve. Summers expects ongoing adjustments in interest rates based on incoming data. The upcoming consumer price index is predicted to show a decline in annual inflation rates. Summers emphasized the need for the Fed to raise rates enough to bring inflation back to target levels, even if it leads to an economic downturn.

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