12 June 2023
The pace of contraction is likely to quicken as the US Treasury rebuilds its account after the debt-ceiling deal, and the Fed runs down its balance sheet (QT). JP Morgan estimates that they will together drain $1.1 trillion of liquidity from the financial system over the next four months. Most of this will come from bank reserves, risking fresh trouble among struggling regional lenders. Could there be an M2 melt-down by September? Yes, there could. Whatever happens, US inflation is coming down.